Hurricanes, Economy, and Elections
Posted by Moonage on 05 Sep 2004 | Tagged as: Events
Hey Kent, Moon here. I have created a new category called “Events”. Due to “events” occuring now, I felt it was appropriate.
To wit:
http://moonagewebdream.blogs.com/moonage_webdream/2004/08/hurricanes_econ.html
The question was posed originally by MLD38 on The Fool. The question being, paraphrased, “if a major event temporarily wrecks the economy, how does that event affect national elections”. The logic cited was Andrew in ‘92. The economy was in a funk, Andrew aggravated it, an incumbent lost his seat.
Now, what I pondering. If one major hurricane aggravated and already weak economy in ‘92. What kind of affect will THREE major hurricanes have on the economy? Florida is always considered a swing state, wonder what affect this is having on them? I see two logics so far:
1. Things are bad, and the foul mood carries over to the person in charge ( favors Kerry ).
2. People are scared and the perceive a need for a man they think can be strong in the face of adversity ( favors Bush ).
This may be time for another poll?
Moon
3 Comments »
on 06 Sep 2004 at 9:34 am 1.kentm401 said …
Well Moon, I can’t see how this plays out 58 days from now. Then we got “Ivan” coming down the pike, to where? “Charley” did the damage, “Frances” excerbated it, and “Ivan”? Who knows? One things certain for sure, both Jobs numbers and retail sales numbers will BOTH be going up in SouthEast in the month of Sept.
Is that a good thing? Can’t tell…can’t say hurricane’s are a good thing, but they do short term stimulate the economy in the regions affected….sooooo….you make the call.
Last go around “Andrew” in 92’s cycle, the bitch was over the lack of FEMA response, IIRC. That washed over 41, and he lost FL, wasn’t even “close”. This time, FEMA’s on the job….how successfully is an open question. Sure could screw it up, and the SIZE of the area affected will impact both reponse and ability to respond, but for now? Might even affect voter turnouts in affected counties, but since it’s the whole State?
Then we got “Ivan”……I’m reminded of one of my fav sayings….well two actually…….:
“No good dead ever goes unpunished”
“Be careful what you ask for. You just might get it”
Regards,
“Curmudgeonly, Kent”
on 12 Sep 2004 at 9:40 pm 2.kentm401 said …
OK Moon, here we go….We’re gonna get out chance to test this conjecture. Ivan is on it’s way, and Southwest FL is the target? We’ll know by Wed., imho, then it’s on it’s way to KY, and maybe some Eastern bands hit VA? A MAJOR economic event imho, affecting the entire East Coast East of the “Great Riva”…..
So what’s the “preDICTion”? disruption of the jobs recovery? Disruption in the Unemployment data, disruption in retail sales, then an increase in certain retail sales. Mixed, to say the least. The aftermath? FEMA sponsored response, but where will resources be concentrated? IMHO, it’ll be FL primarily, maybe LA maybe GE, but that’s it…the rest of us get to “hang tough”, imv.
Will it “Ivan” affect the election? Could be, if the damage is severe enough? And no question, at least to me, that the concentration will be on the “Swing States”, not the “Code Red” States or especially, not the “Code Blue” ones. Just the way the FED’s work is all, nothing more really.
I don’t believe that Bush 43 will make the same mistakes, Bush 41 did? What I will preDICT, is that Q3 will be a slow or NO growth Q, with no real expansion following up in Q4…….not because of the events, rather because of the FED and interest rates.
IMHO, we’re heading into a recession in late 2005, 2 successive Q’s of 0 or negative growth. And the Storms, will only exacerbate it, not cause it. As the long rates approach 4.75 and the ST rate exceeds 2.00 (neutral imv) we’re looking at a “contraction” in the economy. I think it’s in the cards, irrespective of who might “Win” in Nov.
Time will prove me approximately correct, or precisely wrong! So, imv, pray for us all, I think will need all the help we can get?
Economically Yours,
Kent
on 26 Sep 2004 at 11:21 am 3.kentm401 said …
Regarding the general “State of the Economy”, and job’s in particular this line of thought went on quite awhile…….
Enjoy: Kentm401
Rants among friends