Hurricanes, Economy, and Elections
Hey Kent, Moon here. I have created a new category called “Events”. Due to “events” occuring now, I felt it was appropriate.
The question was posed originally by MLD38 on The Fool. The question being, paraphrased, “if a major event temporarily wrecks the economy, how does that event affect national elections”. The logic cited was Andrew in ’92. The economy was in a funk, Andrew aggravated it, an incumbent lost his seat.
Now, what I pondering. If one major hurricane aggravated and already weak economy in ’92. What kind of affect will THREE major hurricanes have on the economy? Florida is always considered a swing state, wonder what affect this is having on them? I see two logics so far:
1. Things are bad, and the foul mood carries over to the person in charge ( favors Kerry ).
2. People are scared and the perceive a need for a man they think can be strong in the face of adversity ( favors Bush ).
This may be time for another poll?