The RNC Bounce
Posted by Moonage on 07 Sep 2004 | Tagged as: 2004 Presidential Election
Well, depending on who you ask, Bush got either nothing or everything:
CNN, who’s never been too terribly kind to Republicans, has this to say:
(CNN) — Last week’s GOP convention in New York City appears to have given President Bush a modest bounce and a small lead among likely voters, according to a poll released Monday.
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of 1,018 adult Americans, including 778 likely voters and 926 registered voters, was conducted by telephone September 3-5.
Bush’s convention bounce appeared to be 2 percentage points….
Dick Gephardt ceded a larger bounce:
WALLACE: Let’s talk first about these new polls which show the president with a double-digit lead. How do you account for them?
GEPHARDT: Well, I always expected that President Bush would get a bounce out of his convention. He is, after all, president of the United States. People watched all of that, and I think he was always going to get this bounce.
They’re talking about the Time/Newsweek poll, which gave Bush a double digit lead.
Then of course, the shocker of them all, which has gotten basically no media attention, the AOL straw poll. Which has Bush winning every state in the nation. ( DC’s not a state, but they do get the three electoral votes Kerry got ).
Most people have been comparing the Time/Newsweek poll to the Rasmussen poll, which had Bush and Kerry dead even. However, Rasmussen goes even farther and predicts Bush will get 213 electoral votes to Kerry’s 175. Although they are ignoring swing states that carry a prediction risk, it’s still a pretty good lead for Bush. The even poll has been reported a lot, the Bush lead poll not at all.
The running rhetoric is the media hates Republicans. Although I believe the media doesn’t like Republicans due to the perceived liberal leanings of the Democrat Party, I think the underlying cause of major media to report the widening margins Bush is enjoying is due more for ratings than ideology. A close race means better ratings for the political based shows, and the evening news. If people perceive this race is over now, then no one will watch or care about the political shows. They’re gonna keep it as close as they can before giving up. Even if they do look “bad wrong” again after the fact. It doesn’t matter. People will fall for the same hook in four years.
4 Comments »
on 08 Sep 2004 at 12:50 am 1.--H
said …
I am a “slow” reader thus had to re-read the below portion from Gephart couple of times. I concluded that there was an obvious contradiction between the 2 paragraphs quoted (I’m expecting you to re-read as well and let me know if I misunderstood so I’m not telling you which parts I found contradictory).
Polls or not, media or not, I think it’s pretty obvious the DNC did not do anything positive on Kerry’s number while the RNC did positive on Bush’s.
One gotta be delusional to believe otherwise. There is NO guarantee that Bush is a better candidate than Kerry on WoT BUT IMHO he is PERCEIVED to be such. WoT is probably the main issue today (we can argue about unemployment, deficits, medicare, insurance, etc.) but I think WoT is still “it”, i.e.: no job or insurance would be good for Bob or Jane Yankees if their cities are bombed or they are forced to wear burqa.
Thus, other issues that are perceived to be negative drag on Bush will have to wait after WoT.
On the criticism that the Bush camp kept pounding on WoT, my question is: “if one is competing for a job, would one highlights their (perceived) strength or weakness?”
With that said, some polls probably we can leave out, such as the AOL straw poll that you linked. It’s just not realistic to even assume that Bush is leading Kerry in states like CA and HI.
“GEPHARDT: Well, I always expected that President Bush would get a bounce out of his convention. He is, after all, president of the United States. People watched all of that, and I think he was always going to get this bounce.
I think a week from now this race is going to be right where it’s been. It’s going to be tied. And I believe that because people in this country want to move in a new direction. They think we’re moving now in the wrong direction with President Bush, and they want to move in a new direction.”
on 08 Sep 2004 at 1:34 pm 2.Moonage
said …
Gephardt’s famous for getting things wrong. He really should stay retired. He’s basically saying the RNC bounce was just a bounce. However, what he’s discounting is that usually whoever has the first convention gets a bounce and a lead, when the second convention occurs the other guy gets his bounce which evens things up. However, both candidates had their shot, the only bounce that occurred pushed Bush ahead. I think a lot of the undecided vote watches both conventions and makes their decision based on that. I truly think the polls we’re seeing now ( sans AOL ), are more realistic to what Kerry is facing. As of Monday, he’s got an uphill battle. As long as Vietnam remains his central focus, he’s going to keep losing ground. He just changed media consultants, maybe they can get him focused on substantive modern issues. I doubt it, but that’s the only chance of this remaining a fun race to watch much longer.
on 08 Sep 2004 at 7:00 pm 3.--H
said …
Moon:
“… As long as Vietnam remains his central focus, he’s going to keep losing ground.”
Just read an article that mentioned about Clinton’s advising Kerry to stay away from the Vietnam issue going forward. AND, the speculation was that Clinton was giving Kerry “bad” advice so he’ll lose and pave the way for Hillary in 2008.
Too much wild spins in a day gave me headache.
on 08 Sep 2004 at 8:55 pm 4.Moonage
said …
What I think you are seeing is a marital rivalry. Bill has nothing to lose and remains in the spotlight if Kerry wins. Hillary has everything to gain and nothing to lose if Kerry goes down in flames. I agree with Bill’s assessment ( obviously ), but I would advise Kerry to keep his friends close, and in this case, his enemy outside the closed door. The leak this last week that can only be pinned down to the Clintons IMO was a Hilary move only. Bill was otherwise occupied after the meeting.