Retirement and the Candidates
OK, this is the ultimate explanation of what is going on and what is going to happen. I wish I had done this a lot earlier to save Dan Rather a lot of heartache. For that, I apologize.
The following chart is gleaned from MSN Money and is the top retirement states in the country from first to last. I have also taken the most recent electoral prediction from Electoral vote dot com. Combining the two, you get the following information:
| DE | $0 | $543 | $133,010 | $0 | $543 | Kerry |
| AK* | $0 | $1,032 | $240,000 | $0 | $1,032 | Bush |
| KY | $0 | $274 | $163,160 | $840 | $1,114 | Bush |
| SC | $0 | $518 | $127,730 | $1,000 | $1,518 | Bush |
| NY | $0 | $912 | $120,490 | $1,120 | $2,032 | Kerry |
| MI | $0 | $1,312 | $116,900 | $840 | $2,152 | Kerry |
| MS | $423 | $362 | $113,410 | $1,400 | $2,185 | Bush |
| WY* | $0 | $1,007 | $141,680 | $1,200 | $2,207 | Bush |
| NV* | $0 | $1,346 | $165,620 | $980 | $2,326 | Bush |
| CO | $248 | $1,141 | $212,240 | $1,008 | $2,397 | Bush |
| GA | $66 | $1,388 | $162,000 | $980 | $2,434 | Bush |
| LA | $225 | $600 | $129,800 | $1,680 | $2,505 | Bush |
| ID | $399 | $1,424 | $145,950 | $1,000 | $2,823 | Bush |
| VA | $26 | $1,964 | $139,270 | $870 | $2,860 | Bush |
| IL | $0 | $1,761 | $86,680 | $1,105 | $2,866 | Kerry |
| CA | $148 | $1,669 | $165,640 | $1,085 | $2,902 | Kerry |
| AZ | $479 | $1,309 | $141,670 | $1,134 | $2,922 | Bush |
| OR | $777 | $2,160 | $139,330 | $0 | $2,937 | Kerry |
| IN | $1,013 | $1,236 | $117,690 | $700 | $2,949 | Bush |
| HI | $1,274 | $939 | $357,310 | $800 | $3,013 | Kerry |
| AL | $948 | $323 | $125,850 | $1,800 | $3,071 | Bush |
| UT | $786 | $1,190 | $150,340 | $1,320 | $3,296 | Bush |
| TN | $0 | $1,666 | $145,510 | $1,650 | $3,316 | Bush |
| NC | $455 | $1,845 | $194,380 | $1,030 | $3,330 | Bush |
| OH | $243 | $2,300 | $136,010 | $805 | $3,348 | Bush |
| OK | $817 | $900 | $90,940 | $1,675 | $3,392 | Bush |
| FL** | $160 | $2,284 | $131,680 | $980 | $3,424 | Bush |
| WA* | $0 | $2,322 | $156,280 | $1,120 | $3,442 | Kerry |
| TX | $0 | $2,332 | $152,000 | $1,155 | $3,487 | Bush |
| MA | $872 | $1,991 | $260,850 | $700 | $3,563 | Kerry |
| IA | $461 | $2,324 | $123,020 | $840 | $3,625 | Bush |
| CT | $234 | $2,561 | $125,330 | $840 | $3,635 | Kerry |
| SD | $0 | $2,565 | $131,750 | $1,080 | $3,645 | Bush |
| MT | $2,339 | $1,392 | $145,880 | $0 | $3,731 | Bush |
| MO | $589 | $2,263 | $140,860 | $1,065 | $3,917 | Bush |
| DC | $2,119 | $1,036 | $245,740 | $805 | $3,960 | Kerry |
| MN | $1,383 | $1,608 | $139,320 | $980 | $3,971 | Bush |
| KS | $1,114 | $1,506 | $91,930 | $1,360 | $3,980 | Bush |
| WV | $1,661 | $1,192 | $104,240 | $1,200 | $4,053 | Bush |
| NM | $897 | $1,946 | $329,610 | $1,288 | $4,131 | Bush |
| NB | $994 | $2,345 | $115,180 | $910 | $4,249 | Bush |
| ND | $635 | $3,194 | $144,570 | $840 | $4,669 | Bush |
| R.I. | $1,156 | $2,831 | $134,680 | $980 | $4,967 | Kerry |
| ME | $813 | $3,604 | $153,490 | $700 | $5,117 | Kerry |
| AR | $2,241 | $1,620 | $117,370 | $1,325 | $5,186 | Bush |
| NH | $0 | $5,279 | $193,090 | $0 | $5,279 | Kerry |
| MD | $1,238 | $3,483 | $275,560 | $1,000 | $5,395 | Kerry |
| VT | $1,057 | $4,065 | $124,320 | $700 | $5,822 | Kerry |
| WI | $1,320 | $3,926 | $159,690 | $770 | $6,016 | Kerry |
| NJ | $87 | $5,788 | $148,800 | $840 | $6,715 | Kerry |
| PA | $0 | $6,551 | $112,330 | $840 | $7,391 | Kerry |
Seven of the ten cheapest places to retire are for Bush. Eight of ten of the most expensive places to retire are for Kerry. See a trend here? The average Bush supporting state pays $3,125 a year, the average Kerry state pays $4,097. That’s a little over 30% more. That’s why the "tax and spend liberal" label is not working for Bush. The voters in states supporting Kerry already know it and apparently are fine paying more taxes. The voters in states that don’t want to pay taxes are already voting for Bush for the most part and therefore he’s not picking up anything new. The only odd one out in the Top 10 is Colorado. Delaware and New York never vote Republican, so they don’t really count. I wouldn’t be surprised if Colorado didn’t come around.
The second incredibly useful piece of information is that the average owned home value for Bush is approximately $152,000. The average owned home value for Kerry is $160,000. Kerry’s selling himself as the "every day guy". However, the "every day guy" with a more "normal" valuation of $155,000 is definitely closer to Bush than Kerry. I see this as another indicator that Bush will win. We’ll see soon enough, but there are a lot more people under the valuation norm than there are above it. Bush is apparently appealing to those moreo than Kerry.
As much as the Dems have always accused the Republicans of pandering to the wealthy, that little chart of mine sure seems to shoot a hole in that theory. And, I was assume as well, explains what’s happening to the Democrats on a national level.
( **** This is an update of a previous post with the states updated only to reflect the actual election results. *** )
