Moonage Political Webdream

In light of the horrific murders in Florida, the state legislature passed very strict new laws.  Conviction of certain types of child molestation cases can bring a minimum of 25 years in prison. The Office of Economic and Demographic Research has researched the legislation and has some issues with it.  Although they haven’t posted anything on their site yet, the Miami Herald does a good job ( I think ) recapping their opinions.

• "the new law adds just 18 new prison beds next year — and a total of 87 by 2007".  This is a problem.  Their solution to this issue is strict enforcement of ankle bracelets for the worst offenders and nothing at all for those offenders deemed less of a risk.  I don’t agree with their suggestion at all.  Free up more beds by putting bracelets on white collar crimes and put all the violent offenders behind bars and keep them there.  At the end of the this post I’ll offer another solution suggested by the honorable Ted Nugent of Michigan.

• "Victims, especially if they are children, are less likely to take the stand or be effective witnesses. Physical evidence is usually scarce."  That’s partially because the fear of the perpetrator is compounded by the fear of knowing that perpetrator might not go to prison for any length of time at all.  If a child and their parents know that concrete evidence will remove that threat for most of their lifetime, they will be more likely to testify.  Lack of physical evidence is not the kicker in these cases, the convincing testimony ( or lack thereof ) by the victim is.

• Prosecutors who specialize in sex crime cases say the new law will likely force them to bring lesser charges in weak cases because defendants will be unwilling to accept plea agreements that include 25-year prison sentences.

  ”Very, very few defendants are going to plea,” said Dennis Siegel, supervisor of the sex crime unit for the Broward County state attorney’s office. “If the case is bad and you want to get some kind of penalty, you’re going to have to change the charge.”  I don’t think so.  Part of the problem now is people are too willing to plea and prosecutors are too willing to take the quick and easy route of accepting a plea.  Getting on the sex ofeenders list, although it might affect your social status to some degree, in other ways does not interfere with a person’s life at all.  If they had no social status in the first place, they’ve lost nothing.  If there truly was a crime and all they got was put on the list, they have suffered nothing.  If there is a crime, it needs to be prosecuted.  Worrying about whether or not they cop a plea is not the point.  Making front page news during the trial is more ofa deterrant to some people than making a list that people have to search the internet to even know they are on.  And in the case of Rhode Island, you can’t even find them on the internet.

• More than 1,500 people since 2000 were convicted for failing to register on FDLE’s list of 34,000 sex offenders. But even though the law increases the penalty for failing to register — requiring a minimum of 21 months in prison — legislative researchers predict that plea bargains will keep many out of prison.  This is more of an argument to put them in prison than trust the list or bracelets.  Clue to EDR, if they are so lacking in basic ethical values that they would molest a small child, they’re not going to concern themselves too much with the fine print of updating the registry.

• Some question the utility of lifetime monitoring since studies show most sexual offenders don’t reoffend once they’re caught — contrary to popular belief. Studies show the base recidivism rate for sexual offenders is just 10 to 15 percent.

  ”It’s important to remember that not all sexual offenders are likely to reoffend,” said Dr. Karl Hanson, an internationally renowned specialist with the Department of Solicitor General of Canada who has authored dozens of sexual offender studies.  Now, this is where we really start parting ways on the issue.  From The John Howard Society of Alberta:

  Recidivism Rates

  One research project looked at 61 previous studies of sexual recidivism using a 4-5 year follow up period. This research on sex offenders found that 13.4% recidivated with a sexual offence, 12.2% recidivated with a non-sexual, violent offence and 36.6% recidivated with any other offence.¹

  A long term follow-up study of child molesters in Canada found that 42% were reconvicted of sexual or violent crime during the 15-30 year follow-up period.²

  In addition, the long-term follow-up study (15-30 years) of child molesters showed that the average recidivism rate for this group of offenders is actually lower than the average recidivism rate for non-sexual offenders (61% versus 83.2% respectively for any new conviction). 

Now, EDR uses this as an argument against the law, I see it as an argument FOR the law.  We’re not talking adults capable of defending themselves.  We’re talking about kids too young to know better.  13.4% is just the ones caught.  As the paper points out previously, a lot of cases never even get prosecuted.  That 13.4% is just the people that got busted and convicted more than once.  If the true rate of incidence is say, double that, that makes it about one in four cases that were not convicted.  If the argument is only to protect children, that rate is WAY too high.  That is what the law intends.  I see nothing wrong with it.

The EDR’s main point is there is not enough funding put behind the law.  My argument i droll and predictable, save money on the white collar criminals and spend it on the violent offenders. Of course, the honorable Theodore Nugent of Michigan offers another much cheaper suggestion:

"Remember the Alamo! Shoot ‘em!" he screamed to applause. "To show you how radical I am, I want carjackers dead. I want rapists dead. I want burglars dead. I want child molesters dead. I want the bad guys dead. No court case. No parole. No early release. I want ‘em dead. Get a gun and when they attack you, shoot ‘em."

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Tags: National Politics

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