Collapsing Birth Rates
Posted by Moonage on 24 May 2006 | Tagged as: International Issues
Real Clear Politics has an EXCELLENT article on collapsing birth rates. They particularly focusing on Vladimir Putin’s comments regarding paying citizens to have children. This is my take from here on out. In the US, we don’t have a collapsing birth rate at this point. We’re in a replacement ratio, 2.1 per woman. However, as RCP notes, when the birth rate approaches 0, the population ages. This is putting financial strains on collapsing countries such as Russia that NEED to be expanding. This is changing the dynamics of politics in the US, note the rise and political clout of conservatism in the last 30 years. This is changing society by way of product choice and production ( older people don’t buy as much ). It’s a one-time blip on the economic cycle that will have ramifications for generations. In the US, IMO, this is EXACTLY what has led to the very mention of foreign "guest worker visas". It wouldn’t be necessary at all to worry about foreign workers if the US were generating a youthful workforce in numbers large enough to support demand. But we’re not, more people are retiring ( exiting the work force ) than are entering the work force. All of a sudden, what has never been considered before is somewhat palatable to most people ( temporary Mexican workers ). The problem however is that this temporary fix has permanent ramifications. Once they come here, they are here forever if they choose. And, my bet is, their children won’t be happy being migrant workers. Will there be a demand to support these children’s careers when the baby-boomers die off? Once the largest buying segment in history does die off, the economic sector will be smaller and the demand for workers less. This is a world-wide trend, not specific to the US and Russia. The "echo problem" this scenario is developing is one where our economy, which relies heavily on the industrialized world market, will have an entire population of unemployable people that we allowed to immigrate to solve a temporary problem. Seems to me at this time the guest worker program is probably NOT a good idea in the LONG run. It sounds good right now, but for our children’s sake, it’s probably best to bite the bullet at the store and wait out this baby-boomer economic bubble.
And, that’s not EVEN considering the fact industrialized people are living much longer than they did in the past.
3 Comments »
on 24 May 2006 at 9:35 pm 1.American Phoenix
said …
Heresy, Christian Culture
I recently read The Great Heresies by Hillaire Belloc. Belloc was one of the premiere Catholic historians of his day. He lived from 1870 to 1953. I am now thoroughly convinced, not only of this man’s genius, but also of
on 25 May 2006 at 12:29 am 2.American Phoenix
said …
America is actually below replacement level as measured by the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Replacement rate is 2.1 as you rightly note. The USA is at 2.01 (as of 2002). What is happening in Russia, which is losing approximately 700,000 people per year, and in Europe, is happening here as well, only much slower. The USA would have an even lower TFR if it were not for immigration.
Many of the causes of depopulation are directly related to issues of morality: abortion, contraception, divorce, sexually transmitted diseases, cohabitation, and homosexuality. These are well documented in the UN reports and in Ben Wattenburg’s book, Fewer.
Simply put, I do not think we can turn depopulation around if we do not deal with at least some of these moral issues at a cultural level. If we don’t deal with them at a cultural level, we’ll never be able to deal with these issues at a civic level.
Actions have consequences.
on 25 May 2006 at 8:50 am 3.Moonage
said …
I was simply addressing depopulation in regards to the current event issue of immigration. There are so many aspects to depopulation I’d think an entire blog could deal with this one issue alone. On it’s face, I’m not really all that concerned with depopulation per se. However, it does present an entire myriad of problems for industrialized nations. I’d think it would already be a much more profound issue on the US if it weren’t for the fact people are working much longer and we’ve filled some of the void with migrant workers from other countries. The unemployment rate in the US is incredibly low given we’ve just endured a mini-recession. That tells me the demand is much greater than the supply for workers as some people just won’t work ( I’d guess right about the unemployment rate ). We’re filling the demand with older/migrant workers now. What happens as our traditional workforce continues to retire? ( Looking at current events, we soften our immigration policies. ) What happens when this excess demand is eliminated through depopulation? Do we just kick them all out at that point? Sure, it’s an option, but I think lawmakers need to look at the long term ramifications of softening immigration laws instead of worrying exclusively about current events. And, if they do, do a much better job of explaining it to the people.