My 2006 election day prediction
I am basing this not on polls, because polls are just as often wrong as they are right. I am basing this on things that matter, that are really happening. The stock market has moved up strongly today. Wall Street LOVES a useless split House. When there’s no chance of significant legislation being produced for a couple of years, the members of Wall Street see stability and the ability to basically run amok. Therefore, I predict the House goes Democrat and the Senate remains Republican.
The results of this, oddly enough, will assure
- the supporters of stem cell research, namely the Michael J. Fox’s, will get no significant legislation for at least two years.
- No pressure will make it through Congress to compel Bush to change any positions on Iraq until he chooses.
- Health care reform, which has seen some progress the last four years, will stop immediately.
- Homeland Security will be compromised by the inability of Congress to change it, which it desperately needs right now.
- Bush most likely will turn to foreign policy to stake his destiny as presidency, and will lead to nothing tangible ( See Clinton ).
- The tax incentives, which the Democrats never allowed to be made permanent, will die on the vine thereby stalling the economy, which Nancy Pelosi will then blame on Bush.
- Expect a renewed attack on the Patriot Act, returning us to the confused and helpless days pre-9/11.
- A sense of vindication by terrorists and probably a renewed vigor to try more attacks within the US.
- The Mexican Wall, which was legislated but not funded, will remain so for at least two more years.
- And, since the margin in the House will be so slim, no meaningful agenda by the Democrats will emerge either. All they’ll be able to do is form and head committees with the knowledge that very little to anything will make it out of the Senate. That just means Nancy Pelosi will form a mindless number of committees to persecute Bush while all of the above issues are totally ignored.
That’s what a useless split government offers us right now. If someone can give me a little more optimistic opinion, I’m certainly game for it. But, do be prepared to make a logical argument as rhetoric won’t survive here. Just saying something will happen won’t cut it. I need to know HOW they will get it done in a completely dead-locked Congress.