Pondering the election turnout?
Posted by Moonage on 27 Nov 2006 | Tagged as: National Politics
The guys at Powerline put some time into analyzing the turnout for the last election and came up with this:
They immediately postulated some reasons for the drop-off. Here’s mine:
92 was a presidential election year, 94 not. 96 was a presidential election year, 98 not. 2000 was a presidential election year, 2002 not. 2004 was a HOT election year, 2006 not. The six election cycles average 2,227,798 voters. The last election, a sixth-year election, brought about 97% of the average. That’s not really too bad. However, it can be safely assumed that the 80,000 nationwide voters that did not vote in the previous off-year election would not have drastically altered the outcome. It can also be safely assumed that the 600,000 that did not vote in the previous election DID alter the outcome. However, traditionally, that happens. Especially in off-year elections and even moreso in sixth year elections. So, IMO, assuming a trend outside of the sixth year elections is somewhat moot since they ALWAYS go against the incumbant president.
Someone commenting on the Powerline blog then speculates there was a "conspiracy" by Karl Rove to allow the Democrats 2 years of leadership to make the Republicans look that much better in 2008. Although that WILL happen, I doubt it was due to any effort of Rove. It’s the sixth year curse, and there was nothing Rove could do to stop it.
Now, I predict the 2008 election will see about 3,000,000 voters. However, that is totally meaningless to who will win. The only thing that matters is who runs and what is happening nationally the middle of October 2008.
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