Obama’s toast ( most likely )
Posted by Moonage on 01 Aug 2007 | Tagged as: 2008 Presidential Race
I just finished the entirety of Barack Obama’s speech to the Wilson Center in Washington, DC. Obama’s toast. The reason I say that is if you read the entire speech, and don’t just pull little tidbits from it, he seems to be quicker with a trigger and harsher diplomatically than Bush ever dreamed of. Now, that’s fine with me. However, I am not a minority liberal candidate running for national office. His speech, if he were a conservative Republican, would be rung from belltowers of all moderate to conservative Republicans countrywide. Outside of McCain, we’ve not had a lucid discussion of national security. This presents a serious problem for Obama I think. Republicans for the most part can not vote for him in the primary, and the Kos kids and the like will never allow for Bush III political rhetoric. They want someone claiming they’ll get the troops out and never, ever, ever, use troops for anything other than parades regardless of who’s attacking or invading the US. Hillary took heat for not pandering to the extremists, Obama has now deflected that attention I’m sure. The big picture is I see Obama evolving as a leader. The bigger picture is the evolution will dictate his glass ceiling based on the party sentiment at this time. He just can’t endorse invading a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 and expect the Rosie O’Donnells, Michael Moores, and Charlie Sheen types to keep supporting him. It just ain’t gonna happen. I hate it when this happens. A candidate starts talking reality instead of rhetoric and suffers dearly for it every time.
The only thing that can save Obama is Hillary speaking realistically as well. I actually can see that happening as she has to prove she’s got bigger gonads than Barack. If he’s gonna invade Pakistan, by garsh she’ll invade Pakistan, Iraq, Iran, AND the US taxpayers.
So, there’s still hope. But it’s fading.
6 Comments »
on 01 Aug 2007 at 10:17 pm 1.QofD said …
I just discovered your blog via DWSUWF and holy crap do I love it. You rock. Can I have your lovechild? And I mean that in the most flattering, non-stalkerish way possible.
on 01 Aug 2007 at 10:53 pm 2.Stormwarning's Counterterrorism said …
Obama, Musharraf, Afghania, bin Laden and the War on Terror…
Facing Reality or Changing direction in the War on Terror? Plenty of people are criticizing Barak Obama for his speech The War We Need To Win Remarks given to the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C. and cherry picking from his…
on 02 Aug 2007 at 7:30 am 3.Moonage
said …
Gee, Q. I am flattered. However, I have a four year old boy already and am quite certain I do not need to be spreading the love any more than I have already. It’s quite exhausting as it is. How’s about we just hang out and be buds?
on 02 Aug 2007 at 10:38 am 4.mw
said …
I am sticking with my prediction from last February:
This is a campaign for Vice President, and this speech brings him closer in-line with ultimate Democratic nominee - Clinton. Barack may occasionally let the emotion of his supporters fantasize about winning the nomination now. But he is smart enough to understand that he cannot win a general election with his limited experience in 2008. After four or eight years as Vice-President? The nomination and White House is his by acclamation. There are two predictions here - The Democratic ticket is Clinton/Obama. If they win in 2008, regardless of what happens in 2012, Obama wins the 2016 election for President.
How is that for balls? An eight year forecast. You have to keep this blog going for nine years so I can come back and say I told you so again.
on 02 Aug 2007 at 11:29 am 5.Moonage
said …
Pretty ballsy for sure. However, I have some concerns with that scenario. First of all, Barack doesn’t really bring anything to the table for Hillary being from Illinois. She’s going to have a hard enough fight being the first woman to run, much less making it a double whammy of the first woman AND the first black. The average white male is going to be tough nut to crack nationwide. My guess is she courts Obama’s support, but chooses someone else as her running mate. Most likely an average white male.
Secondly, Obama can make a lot more noise as a Senator than he can as a second fiddle, so I don’t see him necessarily even wanting the position. Eight years of having to temper his agenda to suit someone else’s just isn’t all that appealing to rock stars. Even if they did talk him into it, I can see a lot clashes between Hillary and Obama.
Thirdly, I can’t imagine Hillary risking the spotlight. Obama’s a bigger “star” right now than Hillary is with the media. Now, he’s even showing some moderate tendencies to endear himself with Fox and the like. It is very likely by the time the primary occurs that Obama could be more popular than Hillary, but lose the election. I can’t in a billion years see Hillary risking being outshined by anyone.
So, as appealing as it sounds, I don’t see Hillary asking, and I don’t see Obama accepting. I see Obama rallying his troops around Hillary and basically taking control of the Senate if she wins regardless of whether or not the Democrats are even in control. If that occurs, it sets the stage for him to promote his own agenda for eight years while Hillary promotes hers, assuming she wins. If she does not, look for Obama ‘12 to be a hell of a force to deal with.
Of course, every four years we get a shooting star. Remember that guy that was revolutionizing the Republican Party eight years ago? Everyone was talking about him rocking the political establishment to its core. Can one person remember his name now? I can’t.
on 02 Aug 2007 at 12:07 pm 6.mw
said …
Yeah - If he had taken Kerry’s offer to be Vice President, Kerry would be President, We’d be in a better place in Iraq and McCain would be making a difference now. Actully that makes my point. Eight more years in the Senate did not help McCain.
I agreed with you on Illinois and the black vote. Barack brings nothing to Hillary there. What he does bring is a big surge of young voters, of the variety that don’t even vote if he is not on the ticket. Hillary wants to be President more than she cares who outshines here. If a Barack VP gets her there. It is a done deal.
As you have pointed out here before (I’m not going to go look for it - I think it was on your old blog a couple years ago writing about Kerry) - it is very tough for long term Senators to get elected President. Too much compromise. Too many votes. The VP role has always been the natural stepping stone to the party nomination for the Presidency: Nixon, LBJ, Ford, Humphrey, Mondale, Bush(41), Gore - all became their party’s nominee after serving as VP (some through assassination or resignation - does not change the point). The path to the Presidency for Barack is the VP role. He knows that.