The Democrat ramifications of Iowa?
We’re now starting to get into the meat of the ’08 presidential primaries. The candidates have danced around the issue, a couple have seen the light and given up, the media have propped up and tore down a few, and everyone has tossed in their views of what will happen a little over a year from now. I for one think everything up to this point has been fodder for thought and that’s about it. Now, the candidates pretty much have an idea how much money they’re going to have to work with and that will set their agenda for the next several months more than anything else. To me, how much, and how a candidate raises money is as strong an indication of support as anything else at this point. No votes have been taken, no straw polls, no primaries. The only fact we have is how much they’ve got to work with. Four candidates came out looking very strong among both parties, some are pretty much out of money already, and some might as well give up since they will not be able to get their message out to the masses. But, they won’t. So, we’ll have to deal with all the prognostications of how well they’ll do based on wishful thinking and personal preferences. I see a lot of those leading into the Iowa primary. Some people are more realistic than others and I like to keep my eye on those.
Among the sites that I think does a pretty good job of looking at things in a logical fashion is Poliblog. Among today’s entries is an article by Dr. Steven Taylor that states:
Now, I agree 100% that if Clinton can win in Iowa, she’s unstoppable. However, I don’t think Edwards has a chance to even look good in Iowa. Currently Real Clear Politics has Edwards running third in a fairly tight race. As Dr. Taylor notes, Iowa is a caucus and not a primary. That allows for negotiating and switching votes up until the vote. Now, where the cards start stacking up against someone like Edwards is supporting a third place candidate offers no rewards. So, although polling may be close, I’ll bet the final result isn’t. As Dr. Taylor also notes, if Clinton comes out strong in the conservative state that Iowa is, this primary could very well be over very quickly. Therefore expect some serious lobbying in Des Moines. It’s not illegal, and it’s not unethical, it’s a caucus. Toss in the fact that Clinton is the least rabid liberal of the major candidates and the pretty-boy image Edwards has accumulated in a farm state and the cards are stacked even higher against Edwards.
My personal bet? The Democrat primary is over when Iowa votes. They’ll play it out, but for all intents, it will be over.