2008 Primaries and the Misery Index
Posted by Moonage on 09 Jan 2008 | Tagged as: 2008 Presidential Race
A lot is being made over the minor primaries and not-primaries we’ve had so far in determining who the next president will be. I’m not so keen on using Iowa, Wyoming, or New Hampshire as predictors of anything. They’re too small and their histories don’t overwhelmingly prove anything. So, since so many people desperately want to predict the future, I’ve looked other places to gain my guidance.
On thing I’ve relied on in the past is The Misery Index. The basic assumption is that when the MI is over 10, the incumbant party loses control. Look for instance at 2004. The Republicans lost control of the House and Senate amid a torrent of negativity that was fueled by everything but The Misery Index. So, what WAS the MI for 2004? Try 8.21. That just doesn’t seem to help any. When was the last time the MI was over 10? Well, it was 1992. Upon pushing the Misery Index under 10, the Democrats immediately lost the House and Senate. George Bush I inherited a pretty lousy MI as well and knocked it under 10 very quickly. He was voted out. In fact, about the only thing I figure that really holds water is looking at the top 10 worst MI’s of all time:
- 20.76 1980 Carter
- 17.97 1981 Reagan
- 17.68 1975 Ford
- 17.07 1979 Carter
- 16.67 1974 Ford
- 15.87 1982 Reagan
- 13.69 1978 Carter
- 13.55 1977 Carter
- 13.45 1976 Ford
- 12.82 1983 Reagan
If you have four of the worst years of all time, you’re out.
That’s about it. Although Bush’s MI’s have been constantly in the same range as his predecessor’s, all we’ve heard about the last couple of years is how horrible the economy is. So, the “real” Misery Index apparently doesn’t hold nearly the same creedence as the IMI, the Imaginary Misery Index.
Given that, I think I’ll stick with my original prognostications that this is going to be a LONG primary. A close primary on both sides. And, a fun one to watch.
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