3
Nov
The weirdest thing happened. If you look at the last column of the spreadsheet, I took a count of the pollsters and allocated each state based on who got the most pollster votes. The final tally was Bush 286, Kerry 252.
If you go ahead an allocate the electoral votes to the candidate who is ahead now, the final tally is 286-252. That spreadsheet predicted every single state correctly. I might be on to something!
Here it is again, check it out!
2
Nov
Here’s a summary of the polls, with associates included. If you want to be involved, let me know before 12 EDT. It’s in Excel.
1
Nov
OK, here we go, the last batch of polls I’m going to see before voting starts.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/ has Kerry 298 ev’s to Bush’s 231. They have swung wildly to Kerry over the last couple of days, a fifty vote swing to be precise. That’s pretty radical if you ask me.
Election Projection has Bush 289, Kerry 249. Their key is Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin going to Bush.
Real Clear Politcs has almost the exact opposite. Although on their map they leave a ton of states as toss-ups, if you look at their battleground polls and paint in the white states, it give you 300 for Bush, 238 for Kerry. Their three way average has Bush ahead 48% to 46%.
CBS has Bush up 3 points. They are apparently using the Real Clear Politics map, as they are exactly the same. Default back to RCP’s poll then. CBS is already doing exit interviews on absentee voters. So far they show Bush ahead by 8%. I believe exit polls more than I do cold phone calls. People are much more inclined to say what they did than commit to what they will do. You can’t be undecided after you’ve voted.
ABC has Bush ahead by one percent. They have been consistantly the hardest on Bush.
NBC basically feels they are tied.
And then of course, there’s the strangest poll of them all. I HAVE to intro it with this headline from World Net Daily:
In the wake of WorldNetDaily’s story yesterday which showed a 48-state victory for President Bush in an America Online straw poll, Democrat John Kerry has experienced a surge, jumping from just 13 electoral votes to 111, while Bush’s electoral total has dropped from 525 to 427.
The Massachusetts senator has finally reached the point of taking his home state in the unscientific survey, but more significantly, he’s now ahead in the prized states of California and New York, whose combined total of electoral votes is 86.
Here is the poll. I have actually copied it as AOL took their last one down to vanish into cyberdust forever. Not so with this one, it’s too good to lose:
Apparently Kerry lost his momentum from that “surge” at a bad time.
Which one do I think is 100% accurate? None of the above. Which one do I think is most reflective of what is going to happen? I have to go with Real Clear Politics. I like their system best. Electoral-vote is much more complex, but it seems to lend itself to bias.
For the record, my prediction made a long time ago was Bush 311, Kerry 227.
We’ll see soon enough.
The Dems are hopping mad at Neil Cavuto. Cavuto half jokingly mentioned he thought he “saw a button” on Bin Laden. Referencing obviously to a Kerry button.
Question: Why weren’t the Dems outraged by the multuple outrageous claims and accusations Michael Moore made in Fahrenheit 911?
Question: Why weren’t the Dems outraged by the multiple outrageous clams and accusations Moveon.org et al have made? Instead only attacking the Swift Boat Vets, whose claims are supported?
Question: Why weren’t the Dems outraged by the multiple outrageous claims and accusations CBS has reported as near fact? The draft by 60 Minutes II and Memogate just being the most well reported.
Answer: Because it supported their candidate is why. Ethics only count when it’s supporting the Dems apparently.
1
Nov
The entire Kerry campaign has left one song rambling over and over in my head:
What is it?
It’s IT!
What is it?
It’s IT!
What is it?
It’s IT!
What is it?
It’s IT!…….
1
Nov
Per Volokh, per the New York Post, there is more to Osama Bin Laden’s comments than what was on the video:
….Osama bin Laden warned in his October Surprise video that he will be closely monitoring the state-by-state election returns in tomorrow’s presidential race and will spare any state that votes against President Bush from being attacked, according to a new analysis of his statement….
Why was this part omitted?
In the big picture, most people are actually more patriotic regarding their state than the country. The more local you get, the more political people become. When Bin Laden threatens the nation, it seems kind of ineffective, as we know we have the world’s mightiest army to protect us. When it starts getting a little more personal, MY state, things get dicier. Southern rednecks don’t take threats that well. The harder Bin Laden pushes, the more stubborn we get. I’ve said before, and with this added tidbit, I’ll say it again. Bin Laden may very well cost Kerry the election for several reasons. An additional one that media left out might be the critical reason, voting against Kerry just because someone else tried to force us to vote for him.
I personally think Bin Laden would be scared to death to even try to traverse Kentucky. I’d love nothing more for him to take me up on that challenge.
31
Oct
Nope, I’m not talking about THE Patriot Act, I’m talking about The PATRIOTS Act.
In September 2003, John Kerry of Boston appeared in front of an aircraft carrier to inform the world he intended to run for President.
In September 2003, The New England Patriots of Boston lost for the last time.
The last possible game before the Boston candidate faces the end of his game, the Patriots apparently are going to lose.
Is this an omen? We’ll see.
The definite stick in the mud is the Red Sox of Boston won the World Series. However, since it ended a curse, it could be that curse is moving on to something else. Curses don’t die easy.
We’ll see soon enough.
Michael Moore released Fahrenheit 9/11 as purely an effort to embarass George Bush. It did some damage as the anti-Bush segment of the population rallied around it moreso than they were their own candidate at the time. Four days before the election, Osama Bin Laden appears before our very eyes basically endorsing Kerry as well ( by way of taunting Bush repeatedly ). However, during Bin Laden’s speech, he apparently quotes Michael Moore.
Now, here’s the irony straight from a Greek classic. Bin Laden using Michael Moore’s video basically did nothing but absolutely hammer home the fact that the war on terror is alive and still very dangerous. My guess is it just raised the bar of concern about the safety of the country for those people that were straddling the fence on which issue would determine who they voted for.
Bottom line, Bin Laden, by way of Michael Moore, probably guaranteed Bush the election.
If for no other reason at this point, I want Bush to win so that Michael Moore and Bin Laden realize exactly what they’ve done.
I’d really like to know what Moore is thinking right now. People accused Moore of pandering to the enemy, Bin Laden proved it.
29
Oct
Kerry’s edge on Bush in California narrows
By Bill Ainsworth
STAFF WRITER
October 29, 2004
SACRAMENTO – Democrat John Kerry’s lead over President Bush has narrowed to seven points among likely California voters, while Sen. Barbara Boxer has increased her lead over Republican Bill Jones to 19 points, according to the latest Field Poll.
If there’s any validity to this claim at all, Kerry is toast. He doesn’t have to lose California to be toast, but if there is enough doubt about Kerry in the most liberal state in the country barring possibly Vermont, there’s a weakness in the states where the balance between liberals and conservatives are more equal such as Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (not dismissing other states, but these three are in-play and most likely will determine the election). A perceived weakness within his core voting block within days of the election could prove fatal.
Host note: Although there is no way in hell Kerry will lose California, he is showing signs of weakness there that is not all that new. On most electoral vote prognostication pages, most have not had California in the “strong Kerry” column.
In lieu of the threat from “Azzam the American“, I can’t help but wonder, given all the heated rhetoric, whether a domestic citizen might feel compelled to affect the election with a faux Al Qaeda agenda. Just act like you’re Al Qaeda, make a video claiming to be Al Qaeda, and kill a bunch of innocent people and voila, you’ve got the terrorist attack everyone’s feared and expected.
I’m not totally convinced Azzam the “American” is a true Al Qaeda operative. There’s something just not quite right about the video. That doesn’t mean I consider him any less of a threat and if captured deserves immediate and painless death ( I only support painful death when pain has been inflicted on others ). But, I’m more inclined to have the impression that Azzam ( which sounds too much like Barney’s “shazzam!”, is a domestic threat using the fear of Al Qaeda to make his threat more viable.
We’ll see in the next few days. If Azzam does blow himself up, I just hope he’s alone when it happens.
Moon
