18
Jan
I gotta score one for Huckabee today. On the issue of the Confederate flag in South Carolina:
“You don’t like people from outside the state coming in and telling you what to do with your flag,” Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, told supporters Thursday in Myrtle Beach, S.C.
“In fact, if somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we’d tell ‘em what to do with the pole, that’s what we’d do,” Huckabee said.
Now, when the flag was an issue, a lot of candidates, including Biden, John McCain and Hillary Clinton, didn’t get it. They felt compelled to infer their opinions on another state. That’s not good for a president. These are united states, not one centralized government. If South Carolina wants the Confederate flag, it’s not the President’s concern whether they like it or not. McCain pretty much ended his campaign on this issue four years ago, he learned his lesson apparently. To date, I can’t see where any of the other previous campaigners have. Of the newbies, I only know Huckabee’s response was worth remembering. Score one for Mike as far as I’m concerned.
In case someone hasn’t noticed by this point, wer’e engaged in a primary season to choose our next President of the United States of America. It’s all over the internet, it’s all over the news, it’s all over radio, it’s all over the papers. And now, for those that ingest none of the above, it’s soon to be all over the roads:
H/T to Mrs. Stormwarning.
16
Jan
Hillary Clinton took Michigan. Running against nobody, she claimed 57% of the vote, and got all of the none delegates. Needless to say, this didn’t tell me much at all. Michigan lost all of their Democrat delegates for moving their primary up too early in the process and the DNC did not approve. For one time only most likely, I’m going to agree with DNC. There really is no reason for all these states to keep pushing up their primaries other than getting a little attention in the process. Michigan, being the size it is, would have gotten that attention in this close race regardless. Because of their short-sightedness, Michigan got little to none. Most of the Democrat candidates did not participate in their primary and the Republicans focused more on South Carolina than they did Michigan. This primary season is too long anyway, I wish states would quit making it even longer needlessly.
Dennis Kucinich has barely made a blip on the polls so far. More importantly, he hasn’t made a blip at all obtaining delegates. Things have gotten so bad, NBC didn’t want him wasting their time at their next debate. So, Kucinich sued to get into the debate, and won. NBC, I guess part of the vast ring conspiracy now, is counter-suing to keep him from wasting their broadcast time. I don’t know what their argument would be. Don’t really care. What I find so ironic about this is the history of uber-liberals has always been to use the courts to mandate what they want regardless of whether anyone else wants it or not. Dennis Kucinich has always been an uber-liberal. Dennis Kucinich is doing exactly what I would expect him to do in this case.
Maybe if Kucinich spent more money on advertising and less on legal fees he wouldn’t be in the shape he’s in now.
13
Jan
Sidney Blumenthal got nailed for DUI the night before the New Hampshire Democrat primary. He got nailed in New Hampshire. Sidney Blumenthal is a senior Hillary Clinton campaign advisor. Now, although most media eventually ran the story, they did so usually starting the 12th or 13th. The primary was the 8th.
Gotta make ya wonder, huh?
A lot is being made over the minor primaries and not-primaries we’ve had so far in determining who the next president will be. I’m not so keen on using Iowa, Wyoming, or New Hampshire as predictors of anything. They’re too small and their histories don’t overwhelmingly prove anything. So, since so many people desperately want to predict the future, I’ve looked other places to gain my guidance.
On thing I’ve relied on in the past is The Misery Index. The basic assumption is that when the MI is over 10, the incumbant party loses control. Look for instance at 2004. The Republicans lost control of the House and Senate amid a torrent of negativity that was fueled by everything but The Misery Index. So, what WAS the MI for 2004? Try 8.21. That just doesn’t seem to help any. When was the last time the MI was over 10? Well, it was 1992. Upon pushing the Misery Index under 10, the Democrats immediately lost the House and Senate. George Bush I inherited a pretty lousy MI as well and knocked it under 10 very quickly. He was voted out. In fact, about the only thing I figure that really holds water is looking at the top 10 worst MI’s of all time:
- 20.76 1980 Carter
- 17.97 1981 Reagan
- 17.68 1975 Ford
- 17.07 1979 Carter
- 16.67 1974 Ford
- 15.87 1982 Reagan
- 13.69 1978 Carter
- 13.55 1977 Carter
- 13.45 1976 Ford
- 12.82 1983 Reagan
If you have four of the worst years of all time, you’re out.
That’s about it. Although Bush’s MI’s have been constantly in the same range as his predecessor’s, all we’ve heard about the last couple of years is how horrible the economy is. So, the “real” Misery Index apparently doesn’t hold nearly the same creedence as the IMI, the Imaginary Misery Index.
Given that, I think I’ll stick with my original prognostications that this is going to be a LONG primary. A close primary on both sides. And, a fun one to watch.
First of all, here’s where I stand on the issue of independent voters:
Now, the purpose of a primary election is defined as:
In New Hampshire, and a few other states as well, independent voters are allowed to vote in any party primary they choose. This is nuts. This is an intentional means to fraud any party primary. Here’s how. It’s very simple. If an “independent” is truly a die-hard member of one party, all they have to do is show up en masse and vote for a candidate of the the other party that can not be elected. In today’s election, Obama has already pretty much tied up the win. Why keep voting for him when you can make your vote even more productive by voting for someone you know he can beat in the general. Someone like McCain maybe? How do we know these “independents” are really switching to McCain or just making a stand that Romney or Huckabee are vulnerable?
I really don’t like this practice of letting people outside of a party determine that party’s candidate. I really don’t.
Yeah, I know it seems far-fetched, almost to the level of conspiracy-theory material. But, sometimes, I just can’t help but think some scenes in politics are totally contrived. Today we got yet another sampling. To wit, Hillary was asked this question:
It? How does she do “it”? Oh man, what a question! “It” can be SOOO many things. But making it “very personal” rules out a lot of things like tuning the car or pruning the perfect lawn. “Personal” usually involves one’s body. Now, being kinda pervy as I am, I got all kinds of nasty “its” in my mind. Spit or swallow? On top or face down? Most at one time? Oh man, the “its” were running wild. With the race tightening and her leads dwindling in many places, this was sure to be the “briefs or shorts” of 2008. The slam dunk to end the entire race. The question to make her much more open and personal. The question that could ONLY be asked of a woman that people would want to hear the answer to. This whole primary shenanigans would be over. It just depended on what the meaning of “it” was.
“How do you…..
Oh, come on now! Quit hemming and hawing and tell us what “it” is! Now!
…how do you keep upbeat and so wonderful?”
WTF? She’s a national politician. It’s her expected duty, as a candidate, to be upbeat and wonderful. Otherwise, she’d have this awful reputation as being cold, aloof, and domineering. No one wants that on their tv every night. To say the least, I, as a man with the usual six second testosterone surge, was beyond disappointed. I was crushed at how lame and girly this was becoming when it could have been SOOOO sophomoric. So, how did Hillary feel when she realized she had been let off the hook?
Then, her voice breaking and tears in her eyes, she said, “You know, this is very personal for me. It’s not just political it’s not just public. I see what’s happening, and we have to reverse it.”
Yes, she wept.
She became personal.
She totally reversed “it”.
The race is still on.
A lot has been made of Iowa’s results. Very little has been made of Wyoming’s results. And, a LOT is being made of New Hampshire’s. But, depending on which party you’re a member of, there has been either one or two votes trying to decide who the party’s candidate will be next fall. A lot has been made of Hillary’s debacle in Iowa, the only Democrat primary/caucus/straw poll, whatever. So, who do you suppose is winning this thing so far? Bet you guessed Obama didn’t ya. Well, if you did, you’re bad wrong. Here’s the current standings on the Democrat side:
- Clinton: 169 ( primaries won, 0 )
- Obama: 66 ( primaries won, 1 )
- Edwards: 47 ( primaries won, 0 )
- Richardson: 19 ( primaries won, 0 )
- Kucinich: 1 ( primaries won, 0 )
Yup, even Kucinich has votes.
The Republican side is a little clearer. Romney, who came in second in Iowa, but won Wyoming, is leading. Here’s how it looks overall:
- Romney: 26 ( primaries won, 1 )
- Huckabee: 20 ( primaries won, 1 )
- Thompson: 6 ( primaries won, 0 )
- McCain: 3 ( primaries won, 0 )
- Paul: 2 ( primaries won, 0 )
- Giuliani: 1 ( primaries won, 0 )
- Hunter: 1 ( primaries won, 0 )
Yup, Giuliani, who didn’t even run in either race, has a vote.
Confused yet? Should be. These are delegates that committed to a candidate before the primaries were ever held. YOU don’t have any say-so whatsoever in who your delegate votes for. Now, under normal circumstances, these super-delegates and committed delegates don’t mean squat. But, in a VERY tight race, they will determine who the candidate is for their party.
And, this has the makings, on one or both sides, of being a very tight race I think.
6
Jan
Lost in the debates last night, as well as the sports all over the networks, is the fact there was yet another caucus. Mitt Romney won Wyoming. This barely merited a blurb on Fox and not much more than that anywhere else. Unlike Iowa, this one wasn’t close. Romney got 67% of the vote, Thompson 25, Hunter 8. No one else got any. Most didn’t even try. That includes the leader, Huckabee.
This pretty much shatters my “age matters” theory.
The Democrats won’t vote until March 8.
Just thought I’d squeeze that little tidbit in while everyone focuses exclusively on New Hampshire, the state that offered us Paul Tsongas over Bill Clinton in 1992, as well as those other noted candidates for president, Ed Muskie and Estes Kefauver ( twice, no less ).
