Oil Supply | Moonage Political Webdream - Part 2

30

Jan

by Moonage

From AP:

Exxon Mobil Corp. posted record profits for any U.S. company on Monday $10.71 billion for the fourth quarter and $36.13 billion for the year as the world€™s biggest publicly traded oil company benefited from high oil and gas prices and demand for refined products. The results exceeded Wall Street expectations.

The company€™s earnings amounted to $1.71 per share for the October-December quarter, up 27 percent from $8.42 billion, or $1.30 per share, in the year ago quarter. The result topped the then-record quarterly profit of $9.92 billion Exxon posted in the third quarter of 2005.

Exxon€™s profit for the year was also the largest annual reported net income in U.S. history, according to Howard Silverblatt, a stock market analyst for Standard & Poor€™s. He said the previous high was Exxon€™s $25.3 billion profit in 2004.

I’d like to know why the price of gas continues to soar while Exxon’s reaping in BILLIONS.  Everyone’s quick to blame the Saudis, but I see an obvious problem right there in the headline and the Saudis don’t own Exxon.  I haven’t bought Exxon gas or products since I bitched about this very same thing almost to the day last year.  Instead of whining about Alito, Kennedy et al could do the public a very real service and bitch about Exxon.  Someone needs to hold Exxon’s feet to the fire.  And, I know it’s not going be Bush.  Maybe Cindy Sheehan will?  ( Nah, she won’t have an issue once Bush is gone. )  I don’t know.  But this is becoming surreal.  On the day Exxon announced their record breaking profits, the price of gas here went up another 10 cents.  Coincedence?  I think it’s confidence.

I think the days of free-market oil need to be looked at a lot closer.  It’s too critical of a need for it to be unregulated at this time.  And, it’s obvious the market can’t do it for them.

21

Dec

by Moonage

Almost immediately upon the release of the ANWR decision in the Senate, this happens:

Apparently the business sector doesn’t like the events of the last 24 hours any more than I do.

21

Dec

by Moonage

In the last 24 hours, the Democrats:

  1. Returned us to the intelligence agenda that led directly to 9/11.
  2. Told the Middle East that we’re not willing to do what it takes to lessen our reliance on them.  Keep sending those terrorists, it’s no biggie.
  3. Didn’t mind too much cutting benefits for the poor, but were willing to stop the Senate dead in it’s tracks sending homeland security statements to the world.

In the last few days, the Germans have released an infamous terrorist citing he was "something normal".  No Democrats have protested.

Thank your locally elected Democrat Senator for returning us to September 10, 2001.  This is surreal to me.

11

Oct

by Moonage

My fellow Fools and I have been having this discussion in regards to the price of gas.  Initially it started as a debate over the 2005 Energy Act and how permits would not lead to more refineries.  As with any lengthy discussion, it morphed.  One of my bestest buds then made this comment:

Both India and China are third-world countries having a GDP a fraction of that of even slightly more developed countries. Also, India and China have cut back on their oil imports: at $60-odd a barrel they don’t have large-enough internal markets to support the refined price and only through subsidy can their manufacturing plants survive.

I, too, thought the import of oil to India and China was a strong factor but after investigating how much they actually buy I realized it’s another red herring. It’s a plausible red herring yet one that doesn’t stand up to their use added to all world use is still below oil production. What made it seem plausible was that it was said as if India’s and China’s use was at the same percentage as developed countries and it isn’t. That in, say, ten years, their use would subtract from that available to developed countries.

He started his post with the comment that we were all buying into the "fear factors" of oil speculation.  That the China/India demand was not really all that it was touted to be.  It was yet another smokescreen used by the oil industry to justify the high prices.  Thought really caught my attention, so I took a look.  This is what I found:

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Growth
US 19.65 19.76 20.03 20.73 20.51 4%
China 4.92 5.16 5.55 6.52 7.01 42%
300% 283% 261% 218% 193%

What everyone’s been saying is true, the demand in China is exploding, rising 42% in the last four years.  What Michael’s saying is true, they still pale compared to the US.  And, how has that affected demand?

2001 2002 2003 2004
77729 76935 79650 83024 7%

China has added 2.09 million barrels to demand, the world has added 5.3 million barrels to the supply.  In other words, China’s not competing for oil we’re using, they are using some of the excess the world is producing.

Once again, I have to agree with Michael.  The China demand excuse is just that.

So why is the price of oil so high all of a sudden?

21

Sep

by Moonage

Some people are predicting the end of the world as we know it based on the projected size and path of Rita.  Here’s why exactly:

The darker grey area is the area impacted by Katrina.  The white area is the area projected to be impacted by Rita.

There is a little sliver of area between the two not impacted by either.

These could be the only functional offshore oil rigs left after Friday.

18

Aug

by Moonage

Yesterday I mentioned China in regards to my comments on Senator Stabenow’s bill to tap the SPR.  Specifically the fact that China is now trying to fill their SPR as well.  Today I find this article at Gateway Pundit:

The Chinese government has sent thousands of police to petrol stations in the southern city of Guangzhou to prevent social unrest as drivers scramble to fill their tanks, the Hong Kong Economic Times reported on Thursday.

Note to Senator Stabenow:

The Chinese government and its state-owned oil companies are locked in battle over artificially low gasoline prices at the pump that has caused a massive shortage in the southern manufacturing province of Guangdong.

The Chinese government controls the price of gas in China.  Their effort to keep the price low is what is driving the demand.  The demand has now exceeded production in two key Chinese cities.  Fear is the same problems will occur in Shanhai.

However, there is some good news:

Oil major PetroChina has made a new gas discovery in southwest China with proven reserves of 100 billion cubic metres (3.5 trillion cubic feet), a senior company official said on Wednesday.

Sounds like a good way to placate the masses.  Sounds kinda like how ANWR’s been handled here.  Every time there’s a panic, people want to drill in ANWR.  I’m not opposed to it, but I don’t think it will solve the primary reason for the shortage in the first place.

Given the pictures featured on Gateway Pundit, and the previous article I mentioned that cites the Chinese government trying to fill their SPR, you can forget about lower prices any time soon.  And, if you want lines like they have in China, keep encouraging the Stabenow’s to artificially lower prices.

12

Aug

by Moonage

I received this email today:

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’m sick to death of paying over $2.50 for a gallon of gas, with no end in sight. If prices are driven by demand, then HELLO, let’s work to lower demand!

Labor Day Weekend is one of the biggest weekends for road travel. Make a small sacrifice and stay home this Labor Day. And for the rest of this year, don’t purchase ANY gasoline from the two biggest companies (which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL, or CHEVRON and SHELL in Canada. If they are not selling as much gas, they will be inclined to reduce their prices. If they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit. But to have an impact, we need to reach literally million’s of gas buyers. So please pass this email on to everyone you can, and ask them to do the same.

I really don’t think it will affect the price of oil.  But, conserving fuel’s not a bad thing.  So, if y’all wanna do it, I’m all for it.  The problem right now is not the demand in the US, it’s the demand in other developing countries.  It’s not going to get any better any time soon.

If you really wanna get serious right now, go to your local GM dealership and try to buy one of these:

In this obscure corner of southern China, General Motors seems to have hit on a hot new formula: $5,000 minivans that get 43 miles to the gallon in city driving. That combination of advantages has captivated Chinese buyers, propelling G.M. into the leading spot in this nascent car market.

Or, get a motorcycle and enjoy 55-60 mpg ( depending on size of course ).

Or, get a bicycle if you live in town. Or, get a hybrid ( mpg results have been disappointing so far ). But, not driving on Labor Day probably won’t do much good.

29

Jul

by Moonage

The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday passed a 1,700 page energy bill containing tax credits worth nearly $14.6 billion to industry.

The incentives would be dispersed among oil, natural gas, electricity, nuclear and renewable energy companies.

The House adopted the bill in a lopsided vote of 275-156, drawing support from 75 Democrats.

The Senate was slated to vote on final passage of the legislation, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, Thursday evening.

The last time Congress passed legislation overhauling energy policy was in 1992. The bill has been a top domestic priority for President Bush…….

The bill would boost the nation’s use of clean-burning biofuels, by mandating U.S. refiners blend 7.5 billion gallons of renewable biofuel into the nation’s fuel supplies by 2012. The bulk of this requirement is expected to be met with the production of the corn-based additive ethanol. Ethanol-blended gasoline burns cleaner.

As pointed out earlier here, it does a lot more than they are emphasizing.  I want my nuclear reactors and I WANT THEM NOW!  The country will rely less on foreign fuels when it doesn’t NEED foreign fuels.  We would never get there with the policies we had.  The media fails to mention any of that.

14

Jul

by Moonage

So far this week:

Now, anyone remember "It’s the economy, stupid"?  Remember all the calls for Bush’s head because of the economy he inherited?  I mean, that’s all we heard in 2004.

With all that economic upside occurring right now, what are we hearing about Bush?

I don’t see anywhere where the media is asking or has asked Bush what he thinks about the sudden change of fortune in the economy.  It’s been building for quite some time.  This might be the next boon.  Not one single question from the press.  Not one.  So how is the media explaining this?

Sorta gives new meaning to the "it’s all about oil" argument doesn’t it?

I just get so tired of the media doing every thing they possibly can to make Bush look bad.  I mean, the good economic news is pouring in right now faster than the markets can even adjust for it.  They totally ignore that.  Instead, they hammer on Karl Rove, which IMO is a dead-end right now until at the very least the grand jury is finished.  I mean, there’s nothing to report here.  Wilson in all likelihood is going to have his character slaughtered at the expense of The White House because he seems to be a chronic liar and has something to do with the "lie" that Bush told. Is the media watching that angle unfold?  NooooOOOOOHHHH! They are so hung up on finding some dirt on Bush that they are ignoring what is probably the biggest domestic story of the year unfold.  And, that is the economy, stupid.

12

Jul

by Moonage

U.S. Stock Markets
Market Level Change Last update 
djia 10,502.54 -17.18/-0.16% 7/12 11:09 
nasdaq 2,134.65 -0.78/-0.04% 7/12 11:09 
s&p 500 1,219.17 -0.27/-0.02% 7/12 11:09 
russell 2000 669.11 -2.63/-0.39% 7/12 11:09 
nyse composite 7,394.70 12.20/0.17% 7/12 11:09 
dow transport 3,601.57 -21.65/-0.60% 7/12 11:09 
dow utilities 395.37 0.99/0.25% 7/12 11:09 
amex composite 1,584.26 11.90/0.76% 7/12 11:09 
fortune 500 index 851.75 -6.23/-0.73% 6/30 

That’s the reality of the moment.  The Dow Jones is down sixteen hundredths of a percent.  Here’s the CNN headline accompanying it:

Oil surge hurts stocks

The stocks have had a nearly week long rally.  For them to cool off for a day is very normal.  There doesn’t have to be some compelling reason for people to cash in the gains they’ve made.  Not every tick of the oil supply is going to be a market mover.  This is just sloppy reporting, again.

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